| 
| Hits: 997
Nairobi, 29, January 2011, Meridian Hotel
The meeting started with the introduction of NCF organisation that was initiated in 2004, to help the Somali people resolve their problems and workout their differences. NCF works and implements a variety of programmes including political, economic, health and education. NCF conducts annual meeting which takes place in the Horn of Africa countries. It also holds panel discussions and public forums to discuss pertinent issues in Somalia. The theme of this particular meeting was to discuss what will happen after August 2011; that is when the TFG elected term/period ends. The role of the Civil Society in ending the political stalemate after August 2011
The discussion started with a briefing and update on the latest development in Somalia, as some of the participants knew the situation well enough but some needed update on the current situation.
In general, there has been no change in Somalia from 2009 to 2010, and the political cycle seems to remain static this time since both the TFG and insurgents remain more or less the same. However, the most crucial point of substance is peace and neither the TFG nor the insurgent group has a comprehensive policy, plan or the goodwill towards realizing a peaceful and stableSomalia. Though, the TFG constantly claims that it will do something tangible, nothing concrete has come out of it so far.
The TFG was consumed and is still busy with training new forces; it has successfully trained forces in different countries but faces a challenge of maintaining the forces it has developed through training.
Another important shift or political development in Somalia is the agreement between Hizb-ul-Islam and Al-Shabaab which leaves the TFG with nobody to negotiate with but to take considerable internal and external measures. There are some signs of improvements within the Shabaab.
The relationship between TFG and Puntland wad messy since President Abdullahi Yusuf left the office. There were differences which led the Puntland Administration to call off or cut its relationship with the TFG.
Augustina Mahiga admitted that the TFG will end by August of this year, and the AU will discuss the options available for replacement of the TFG.
A member of the Kulmiye Party in Somaliland urged his party to negotiate with Southern partners sighting examples ofEritreaandSouth Sudan. He proposed to organize a Reconciliation Conference and in the process seeking independence of the Southern partners.
The drought has impacted on the Somali people, particularly some regions that did not receive harvest for last 7 Gu rainy periods, such areas include Hiiraan Sool, Sanaag and Middle Shabelle and this led to humanitarian crisis. Majority of those who have been affected fled to the refugee camps like Dadaab. Humanitarian Agencies warn of the situation but due to the current security situation these agencies cannot help or go to these regions. During such droughts people organize themselves to help each other, business service providers, trading companies and others donate to support drought affected people in Somalia. For instance, Dahabshil Money Transfer donated $150,000.
Shabaab leadership has changed their attitude and position towards alienating the Somali people in respect to their religious beliefs and relationship with the TFG. There are money areas that are in the control of Ahlu-Sunna, these areas do not receive adequate food aid and sometime the food aid is mis-appropriated and misused. The ending of WFP work in the South to the people in immediate humanitarian crisis was condemned
Humanitarian situation is getting worse and the funding agencies have stopped further funding since they stopped their operations in the South. They fear that their fund will ultimately be diverted to the hands of Shabaab. These has led to the suffering of many people in the region, unfortunately the Funding Agencies are busy with construction and building houses while people are starving and in need of immediate attention.
When Muslims sin they are faced with a lot of problems such as insecurity, droughts, floods etc. there is a difference between the Tribe (Qabiil) and Tribalism (Qabyaalad), the tribe is important and useful, it creates a sense of ownership, collaboration and assurance to its members while tribalism poses a great problem to this community and creates parallel positions.
The participants were informed that new forces are trained and given guns without proper awareness, civil ethics and laws. In addition the new forces receive no or unfavorable package from the government which at times leads to illegal acts and even selling their military hardware to their opponents.
The panel was informed of a political move which has been agreed by both Italy and US to put Somalia under a New Trusteeship Commission comprising of Somali nationals and some foreign expert. There will be a special meeting on Somalia in Addis Ababa chaired by Banki Moon. So much discussion is taking place among the international community, these discussions focus mostly on civic education and related issues. They consider that a lot needs to be done on the constitution.
There are a lot of political movements in Somalia the major movement and player being TFG which is the only legitimate and internationally recognized government in Somalia, and most of Somalis are part of it. However, TFG failed to fulfill its duties in the transitional period to mainly formulate a federal constitution forSomaliaand to put an end to the transition period to aFederalSomaliState. Besides, there are autonomous regions such Puntland,Somaliland, Galmudug, Ximin & Xeeb, Hiiraan, Waadi & Waax. Other powerbrokers in Somalia include Shabaab, Ahlu-Sunah-Wal Jama, business people, pirates, civil society groups, and freelance militias controlled by former warlords.
The most important thing worth mentioning is that since 1993 when the US led mission of Restore Hope Operation failed the international community decided against any direct political intervention in Somalia. However that policy ended in 2000 when the TNG was established in Djabouti Arta Conference.
There are many obvious questions posed; do Somalis have a voice on TFG extension? In case the International Community agrees on the TFG extension who will replace the current TFG leadership? Is any agreement possible to continue in this transition period? If not, what would be the other possible options?
It was noted that the TFG is a new system to the world and has taken good steps forward compared to the TNG thus the World became a good partner to the TFG. The TFG has transformed overtime and changed faces and leadership for instance the current prime minister and cabinet are new in the political scene and so TFG should continue until the Somali people realize a lasting solution translating to a strong central government.
A participant questioned the possibility of the extension of TFG mandate which was ending on August 2011 which everybody was aware of. Besides, the parliament and president intended to extend their terms respectively despite a distorted understanding towards how they can extend their term in office or as parliamentarians. It is difficult to continue in Mogadishu with no progress so far and also with the TFG facing problems and challenges from the current Puntland administration
The idea to extend TFG mandate received support in the argument that it’s a good start for a reliable TFG Cabinet. The current cabinet consists of politically clean and young professionals and for this reason there will be many positive changes
Somalia has had a civil war and all state apparatus absent for the last 20 years. Mahiga through a press conference had clearly stated that the TFG mandate will end at Aug 2011 and not before as some people were saying it will end on 31st January 2011. The Somali people need to support the TFG as the country belongs to the Somalis and not to Banki Moon, Mahiga and others.
A participant sought to differentiate between TFG and a Government, the TFG has been given an assignment and everything cannot take place at once, this include creating and reclaiming international trust and cooperation and many other issues of special concern to the current TFG. With the proper capacity and strong government institutions that can implement policies the TFG will succeed. The current cabinet should be given time and hopefully they will improve the situation; Somalis need to think through what they need change and what to retain at status quo.
The base power of the president was noted to be very weak; he tried to fight with Shabaab but has been unsuccessful. If the Shabaab disappears what will be the next step? New plan and contingency plans have to be put into place.
The International Community was said to support the continuation of the TFG. All the changes, options and/or replacements depend to the determination of the Somali people and on how they resolve and work out their differences. Both the available options of extending the TFG period and the Trusteeship rumors have obstacles and will face a lot of challenges. Therefore people need know the outcome if the TFG mandate come to an end.
In addition the International Community does a lot of things, for instance in Sudan; drafting of CPA, the referendum and other issues. The International Community can only help but the real and durable solutions should come from the Somali people. The international community cannot impose foreign solutions to Somalia, all possible solutions lie in the hands of the Somalis.
What is happening Somalia has also taken place in other parts of the world such Tunisia, Egypt, and Sudan but sadly Somalia losses the international focus and always shift focus away posing a major problem. Furthermore the TFG has always had obstacles regarding its mandate which should be resolved and Somalia immediately switch to a Federal System.
The idea of giving more time and chance to the current TFG received more support from a participant who then asked what will happen if the international community opposes the extension idea, besides what are the other available options? The extension of TFG mandate however should be on condition
- The security is improved and put in place
- The TFG defeat the insurgent
The second scenario is where the Somalis decide their future and that of their country and the international community should respect the self-determination of the Somali people. In case the people want to change their president there should be a criterion in place that guides such political changes.
The issue of trusteeship commission is a good idea but is not applicable to Somalia
Opposed to the extension of TFG mandate, a participant felt no more time should be wasted and TFG should be ended in a political dialogue. The current TFG was established in Kenya and had a weak base for a few people.
The Somali problem, is that everybody want to be the leader Somali intellectuals have met in different places and their ideas are not valid and do not work, if the Government will not get strong security will not work.
Participants attributed the problem of failing to finalize the constitutions to the parliamentarians. They are not simply in a position to help the Somali people resolve the problems, continuation with the same people (PM) means the problem will persist.
A former employee of Siad Barre government having been out of politics for 20 years could now clearly tell that the essentials of politics in Somalia lies under the creation of political parties. Personal political figures and tribe based leadership in no longer working in Somalia and only political parties can render solutions of substance to the Somali people. He urged the international community and Mahiga to support the will of the Somali people and leave the struggle to the people, on the issue of UN Trusteeship he said it was not a bad idea, but still there is need to form a national unity party.
A participant of different opinion felt that Somalia doesn’t need a one party state and always those who form and have such party will have their own interest and agenda. The only viable option left was the extension of the TFG.
The need of patriotism was emphasized; Somalia is in need of patriotic Somalis who have a good understanding of the Somali problems and background. Unfortunately those who claim currently to be the Somali intellectuals don’t understand the Somali way of life and the Somali culture well. A participant preferred the Shabaab for various reasons instead of forcing the Somali people under what he terms as “the new colony” in the brand name of Commission of Authority under UN.
Somalis always present realistic and good ideas, how can they use and utilize these ideas?
The participants were urged to stop being pessimistic and instead form an alliance with agreed agendas, internally and externally. The Somali people and the International community will accept any reliable and common political alliance. One Somali voice that can help to resolve the Somali problem, Somalis need a unified voice and to work towards reducing the dividing factors.
The panel facilitator advised the participants to focus on current issues and agenda of the meeting instead of the Commission of Authority while it is one of the possibilities. What other options and possibilities are feasible?
Other possibilities may include dividing Somalia into three Zones and putting it under a UN trusteeship.
A participant said he doesn’t believe in these Zone and/or trusteeship options. He is of the view that reducing the parliament size and electing new government might improve the situation.
While another one had a difference opinion and asserted that the Somali people are complicated, she proposed learning from the world how differences are solved. She supported re-engaging the traditional Somali leaders and reducing the size of the parliament. She further suggested to undertake research and studies regarding similar countries such as Lebanon and get ideas and experience from them.
Second session
Recap of debate
- Extension of TFG (how – why)
- Requirements (Security inMogadishu, TFI unity of Purpose, Reconciliation )
- The Time frame
No extension - Options
-Commission of Authority
-Trusteeship (UN)
-Changes in TFI (downsize the parliament – elect new leadership)
-Balkanization policy (Dual Track)
-New transition (reconsolidation possibly in Puntland or Somaliland)
In case the transition period is extended how will it be? It was pointed out that the current Puntland Administration is bringing motion and quick move when they see anything that is against their personal interests.
Puntland and Somaliland are part of Somalia and the TFG, and political progress can be made if traditional leaders including religious leaders and also respected scholars from the Muslim World are brought together to find durable solutions for Somalia
Participants noted that the TFG in Mogadishu depends on the AMISOM and any extension for the TFG should be approved by the AMISOM as well. In case they don't approve the TFG and its institutions will not work.
A proposal was made to the panel to wait until the TFGs' position regarding their future is known. It was felt that the only possible way is to bring TFI motion for extension and take vote for it in the parliament.
A prediction was made that if the motion is brought before the parliament and approved the situation will become further complicated putting in mind other stakeholders such PL and Ahlusunha Wal jamahaIt is obvious that they will bring a motion for extension and they have to consider both possibilities of approval and rejection as majority of Somalis may reject it.
The proposal to engage traditional leaders in creating new TFI received more support from the panel. The TFG Parliament is fighting over small issues and TFG parliament speaker is seeking for an extension.
The parliament has the authority to extend its term, however, they it will face challenges from the international community and AMISOM regarding their legitimacy and security. Consequently, the AMISOM might opt to change its mandate for protecting the airport and the port. Indeed, any extension without the support of the international community and AMISOM will not work.
The panel was informed that the International Community is ready to support extension, for two reasons
(1) Anti piracy,
(2) The Arab countries are now in critical situation.
The TFG was said to have been brought by the international community and those who brought it announced that the TFG Mandate is up to August 2011. Therefore, there is no way for extension without the support of the international community. Even with the full support of the Somali, little can be done and what is essential now are realistic and practicals ideas that can address the problem.
No Extension Scenario: (Five options)
-Commission of Authority
-Trusteeship (UN)
-Changes in TFI (reduce the parliament – elect new leadership)
-Balkanization policy (Dual Track)
-New transition (reconsolidation possibly in Puntland orSomaliland)
The question is which option is the most suitable forSomalia?
The inside power is invisible and any changes will not be effective, the Civil Society should raise the voice to the international community to either support the Somali interest or leave the Somali people alone and to themselves.
Participants felt the best option is to correct and develop within the TFG, and this was the best proposed option which is possible. The commission will not receive any considerable support within and outside Somalia.
Changes within the systems:
The best option among the five options is to organize and hold a reconciliation peace process with two faces. The first face should focus on the South and Central Somalia while the second phase will incorporate in the process Puntland and Somaliland.
Another participant had a different view which is to basically wait the progress of TFG for remaining period and things can be different, she clearly stated that any extension for TFG will depend on the improvements the TFG makes on the ground.
Finally, the panel agreed that the best option is to make changes within the current TFG.
The obvious question then is to make changes within the TFG, what are the steps that needs to be taken to realize this best option?
A participant shared with the panel that any changes within the TFG is a positive step to avoid implementing foreign policies against the Somali people's interest and self-determination. Such policies include the Commission of Authority and the 10th Parallel Policy proposed for countries like Sudan and Philippine.
Changes in the TFI are the best option but it has many obstacles, for instance, the Djibouti peace process was unable to reduce the parliament size. So then how can the parliament be reduced? If the parliament is successfully reduced the Somali people can create a better and progressive central government.
Conclusion:
Knowingly, the International Community controls directly the TFG but has also indirect control over all of the Somalis, the World will not agree on destroying and devastating Somalia; it is impossible. There are no creative ideas to resolve the Somali crisis which is the weakness. There is need to explore opportunities and possible solutions to Somali problems and how the situation can be improved.
ABBREVIATIONS
AMISOM African Union Mission for Somalia
ARS Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia
AU African Union
BoD Board of Directors
CSOs Civil Society Organisations
EC European Commission
HBF Henrich Boll Foundation
ICG International Contact Group
IDPs Internally Displaced Peoples
IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development
NCF National Civic Forum
NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations
OIC Organisation of Islamic Conference
SCG Somalia Contact Group
TFG Transitional Federal Government
UN United Nations
UNPOS United Nations political Office for Somalia