NCF Somali

February 19, 2011 at Red Court Hotel in Nairobi

Executive Summary

The public forum held on February 19, 2011 at Red Court Hotel in Nairobi brought together members of the civil society and seasoned politicians to discuss the general overview of the future of Somalia with a focus on the political dimension in light of the latest developments including but not limited to the Transitional Federal Parliament’s decision to extend its tenure, the people’s revolts in fellow African countries which Somali share political and cultural ties with, and the approaching expiration of the TFG’s period.

The discussions generated ideas that mainly revolved around the establishment of party system to replace the clan-based politics, the re-invention of the Somali nationalism, and the involvement of the educated people in the political process.

This is part of NCF efforts to generate ideas and disseminate them to the people to help create awareness of the situation and inform the public on what is going on so that they can make their own decisions to take the fate of their country into their own hands, NCF facilitates these discussions and publishes them on its website (ncfsomali.net).

The report includes the details of the discussions and the recommendations proposed in the process. The goal is to encourage further discussions on the way forward for the Somali politics and give the power to the people, while controlling the manipulations of the international community for their own interests.

Introduction

The story of Somalia and its political turmoil has been the subject of the media (both local and international) for the last two decades. With the recent developments of peoples’ revolutions all around the world, especially in many countries that shared and/or still share cultural and political ties with Somalia, it is in order to revise the current situation and take forth the dialogues focused on exploring a way out for a country and people that have endured the ruthlessness of anarchy, insecurity and instability.

The National Civic Forum (NCF), in exercising its mandate, continues with its series of discussions and debates that usually bring together members of the Somalia academia, elders, politicians, civil society members and thought leaders that have an extensive experience and knowledge of the Somali political history and process to come up with ideas that will save the nation. NCF has been organizing similar discussions in the past which addressed various aspects of the current situation in Somali; however, this discussion seemed to be of high profile in respect to the participants brought together and the discussion’s inclination towards the political future of the country. The public forum brought together members of the civil society, prominent figures in the Somali political arena, and various scholars and elders.

The report attempts to capture the discussions, comments, opinions and recommendations that focused on the general overview of the Somali political landscape and the way forward to a united, peaceful nation. The discussion which also had a slightly different format this time was held at the Red Court Hotel in Nairobi on February 19, 2011. Kick-started with four presentations intended to elicit comments and further elaboration, the participants openly gave their opinions and ideas in a civilized and harmonious manner. It was also agreed that the importance and magnitude of the topic of discussion required more time and even more brains to make it a more fruitful and effective one with actionable outcomes.

The report presents a brief background and a snapshot of how the current political situation came to be, trying to identify and correlate the causes and effects that are the culprits of the still ongoing crisis. The bottom-line is to generate and disseminate ideas that will contribute to the rebuilding process.

Background

There have been so many conferences that have been dubbed the Somali peace process and the Somali reconciliation process held in and hosted by countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya and Eretria. The outcomes of these conferences were hopeful and managed to restore the faith of the people in these so-called processes, their politicians and the intention of the neighboring countries and that of the International Community-        IC.

From the first conference held in Djibouti to the last one hosted by the government of Kenya, history has shown the ineffectiveness of the IC-led efforts to a level that the Somali people started wondering whether the International community really wants stability to come to this ailing nation. Since 1990, various governments referred to as transitional governing bodies have been established. From the transitional national government (TNG) to the transitional federal government (TFG), the same players dominated the political arena which made the outcomes more or less the same in terms of effectiveness.

Calls to build a government of technocrats fell on deaf ears, while the large majority of the country’s legislative body demonstrates the lack of capacity to effectively play their required/expected role. The continuous conflicts and fallouts among the TFG and previous governments’ top ranking officers have also been blamed for this never-ceasing situation. In addition, the scholars, educated people and competent technocrats have been sidelined. Part of the chaos is the lack of a functional constitution to clearly outline the powers of the top offices, their rights and responsibilities and the eligibility criteria that would set prospective candidates apart in terms of their suitability and capacity to take on these responsibilities.

In addition, the country has been divided into smaller fiefdoms that were motivated by the clan-based politics. The secession of Somaliland in 1995 followed by Puntland’s proclamation as an autonomous state that is still part of Somali, has seen to the rise of similar state governments lately  Galmudug state, Hiiraan State, etc. The latest development in the TFG and the dissatisfaction of Puntland State government with the TFG seems to deteriorate their relationship, which may result to Puntland’s announcement of its secession as well.

Amid the rules of the warlords and religious groups such as Al Shabab and Hizbul-Islam, the transitional governments so far remained powerless. This has been exacerbated by the external influences exerted by the neighboring countries vying for their own interests, rendering the country’s political figures and groups nothing more than the pieces of a chessboard.

Currently, there is a trend that is emerging where the scholars, educated and experienced technocrats who previously abandoned the political stage/arena to the warlords and their types have recently started taking interest in it or at least voicing their interest for the first time. This is evidenced by the number of political parties that have been launched inside Somalia and among the diaspora. The coverage of the launch ceremonies of the political parties such as Hiiq Qaran and others that have been in the online media this month are already causing rumours and starting speculations as to whether it will make any difference while the game is being played outside the football court.

All these facts and others that could not be summarized here, make it pertinent to look into the causes, and work on anti-dote for the issues.

Forum Presentations (a summary of the proceedings)

The forum presentations opened the stage for the public forum, where four presentations made by key participants lay the background for the discussions. A crucial point that has been repeated throughout the program was the fact that the educated people and scholars have been marginalized in the Somali political process, and that consultation with this group has become more important than ever to save the nation.  This agenda paved the way to a discussion of the need for a system of independent parties. A majority of the participants agreed that the main cause of failure of the political process is due to the above issue.

Transcending the clan-centric political orientation in structuring the Somali government systems and branches will eventually lead to establishing an effective government that will overcome the local rebellions and external influences. Since the transitional process was initiated in 2000, the Somali politics has been more of a reactive one than a proactive one. Most of the political decisions seem to be short-sighted dealing with or reacting to the issues of the moment. The transitional process and the 4.5 system facilitated a non-functional governance structure manned by incompetent players.

The participants and the Somali people at large agree that the system of 4.5 is not a solution to equal power distribution. The panel discussions echoed the need to select the political and thought leaders on the basis of their qualification, following a transparent, standard criteria and a history of their contributions to the country’s political well-being. It is the 4.5 system of power distribution that transformed the idea of a nation to clan-based fiefdoms and regional governments.

The closest solution to the Somali political dilemma was the Arta conference which was praised on its ‘united-Somalia’ orientation. However, the objectives of the TNG and the TFG have been sidelined to personal interests where the parliamentarian selection process has been replaced by individuals being nominated on the basis of their clansman-ship. Even within this selection process, there is still the formation of common-interest groups and coalitions within the parliament that push for unconstitutional, selfish agendas. This is as a result of cultural leaders and clan elders making most of the contributions to the political process instead of the educated and competent individuals that could bring about the much needed change.

The second presentation focused on identifying the causes of the current situation as changing the circumstances that brought about the current situation can only bring the needed change. The anarchy and the clan-based conflicts are agreed to be only the consequences of a history of ignorance. The proposed areas of inquiry include: what caused the rise of the warlord phenomena? Why did the so many conferences fail or had little effect? and to what degree is the Somali current situation the work of external influences and manipulations?  Some of the participants questioned the motives and interests of the international community in the Somali politics.

To understand all that, it was proposed to establish a baseline on the current situation. First of all, there is an ineffective and incapable government evidenced by its internal conflicts and little control on Somalia. Secondly, the judiciary has failed to play its role that would ensure justice and separate the powers, while enforcing the constitution.

The third presentation emphasized the above points and the role of the civil society and organizations such as the NCF. The reinvention of the Somali nationalism is the solution, and education as well as awareness on the history of the ongoing conflicts should be coupled with a deep-rooted feeling of patriotism and nationalism. The decision to extend the parliament tenure was also another key agenda of this discussion that more than once diverted to the agenda. The participants agreed on the illegitimacy of the extension and deemed it unconstitutional; but also agreed that this is as result of the government structure whose judicial role to put this to an end lacked.

The Somali unity agenda was also brought to the table. This issue was given more prominence due to the latest developments in which the British Government invited the leaders of the TFG, Somaliland and Puntland to the table to discuss the future of the greater Somalia – a move which the TFG did not accord its deserved attention.

The potential of involving and including the Somali scholars and educated people into the political process have also been discussed at length. They have a better capacity to analyze the changing political landscape, thinking beyond the clan interests and focusing more on the role the nation has to play in the international politics. The system of political parties will ensure that there will be a more hands-on approach to changing this reality and transforming the Somali politics from a clans-centric to a more principle-driven one.

It is well acknowledged that the clan factor in the Somali politics will always be there, and the question is how to take advantage of this phenomenon to come up with a holistic approach to addressing the current dilemma.

The fourth presentation discussed the possible scenarios of the Somali politics and situation as the way forward, and the limiting factors to realize and focus on the best and more suitable alternative. Below is a table on the four possible scenarios and key actors that might have a role in its realization.

Table 1

Summary of the Recommendations

-The transitional federal government and its parliament need to re-strategize in terms of their policies regarding the decisions on the vision of a greater Somalia to avoid incidents such as the last one in London

-The leadership needs to involve more educated people that can make a positive contribution to both the local and international agendas of the TFG

-The TFG and/or the international community interested in the successful establishment of a governing body that can play an effective role in the process should reconsider restructuring the government system, revising its policies and changing its leadership. Both the structure and the leadership should be changed simultaneously to make it a change for the better.

-The issue of clan-based politics can be addressed by encouraging a party system where political parties based on ideologies and agendas are established to compete for the people’s acceptance

-Limiting the number of MPs and also setting a minimum criterion for selecting and/or electing the members will enhance the capacity and quality of the parliament.

-It will not be easy to avoid the clan-based selection process and the 4.5 system initially, however, it is suggested that the same process should be used to select competent individuals from each clan to kill two birds with one stone.

-The finalization of the draft constitution and its enforcement as quickly as possible will help prevent future fallouts among the government’s high ranking officers, and also put an end to abuse of the people’s rights. The constitution should also be revised along the lines of what the people want, and they should be allowed to draft the constitution on their own.

-Understanding the agenda and interests of the international community will eventually help in controlling their manipulations for the better or worse. It is a widely-held opinion that the international community’s core agenda is to quarantine the failed state and there are always hidden agendas driven by their own interests and that their interests always come before their principles.

-Involving the educated people is now a practical option as many of them have started returning home, and the last generation seems to be more educated than the former that lost their opportunities in the last two decades. Directing the role of the international community in the Somali politics takes more educated people that can think along the same lines as the IC leaders.

-Involving the previous military personnel that seem to have lost their role and touch in the Somali politics is a way forward to re-inventing the Somali nationalism

-Learning from the history making the last 10 years which saw to the emergence of Islamic groups such as Al Shabab that seems to be driving the national agenda was also recommended by the participants. This also involves learning from the current developments in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia which are great examples of patriotism and nationalism.

-Establishment of united Somali communities in the diaspora to serve as a conduit for the party-based politics can also contribute a great deal to the re-invention of the Somali nationalism and putting an end to the clan-based politics